Q235 · Practice questionTechnology-activeComplex unfamiliar7 marks
QUESTION 235 (7 marks)
A sample of 100 independent observations has . For an illustrative fitted model, individual future observations have distribution, using variance as the second parameter. Use z=1.96.
a)[2 marks]
Find an approximate 95 percent confidence interval for the unknown population mean.
b)[2 marks]
Give the central 95 percent range for individuals under the fitted model.
c)[3 marks]
Find the proportion of fitted individuals within the interval in (a), and explain why the ranges differ.
WORKED SOLUTION
7 marksPractice marking scheme
ANSWER
(a) . (b) . (c) , approximately .
Worked solution
(a) The estimated standard error is 10/10=1, so the interval is .
(b) Individual standard deviation is 10, so the fitted range is .
(c) Standardising the narrow interval for an individual gives . Probability is . Estimation uncertainty of a mean uses standard error; spread of individuals uses population standard deviation. The individual range is conditional on the fitted model.
Equivalent mathematically justified methods accepted.
Exact answers unless a decimal accuracy is specified.
Part a: Use estimated standard error 1.
Part a: Give both endpoints.
Part b: Use individual standard deviation 10.
Part b: Give the central range.
Part c: Standardise to plus or minus 0.196.
Part c: Evaluate 0.1554.
Part c: Distinguish individual spread and mean uncertainty.
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